While nearly two-thirds of former Los Angeles Times journalists would like to remain in the news business, more than half believe their former paper eventually will fold – and nearly as many think newspapers in general have been mortally wounded, according to a recent informal survey conducted by TheJournalismShop.
Only 16 percent expect the Times to survive, and nearly a third say they were uncertain what will happen.
“It will either become all-paid like WSJournal or be privately foundation funded,” wrote a woman who volunteered for a buyout. “Guessing.”
The poll was conducted among former Los Angeles Times staffers who are members of a support message group. Seventy-five out of 124 members responded, and only a quarter of them expected newspapers to survive the current economic crisis.
“The stack of paper that used to arrive at your front door will disappear,” wrote one laid-off female journalist. “Already it seems quaint and wasteful.”
But another woman who took a buyout said there was still sufficient demand for newspapers to continue in some form.
“I am an optimist when it comes to believing that newspapers will survive because millions of people still read and want reliable, objective news,” she wrote.
Even if newspapers survive, several expected a much lower quality product. “Most papers will evolve into local rags with a heavy emphasis on entertainment and other ‘news you can use’ and time-wasting blogs to keep people entertained,” wrote a former male staffer, whose job was cut.
Those who want to stay in journalism believe they face an uphill battle, given that the industry lost 86,400 employees from November of 2008 to November 2009, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Of the 48 journalists who want to stay in the profession, 30 would prefer editing jobs. Twenty three would also be happy with a reporting job. (Totals can exceed number of participants because multiple categories could be selected.)
Several hoped to combine journalism skills with personal passions.
“I am hoping to turn my ‘hobbies’ into a paying work,” wrote a woman who was laid off. “I want to return to journalism, but not the same way I was doing it.”
Others have found ways to boost journalism in a supporting role. “I never left journalism,” wrote a man. “I simply took the buyout and accepted a job with a nonprofit that supports journalism.”
Twelve members were interested in research/library jobs and 11 were interested in web managing careers.
Of the 26 who plan to leave journalism, 15 said they are looking toward a communications career while ten want to work for themselves. Many respondents, tapping into the impetus that sent them into journalism in the first place, hoped to take on roles beneficial to society, with 14 interested in working for nonprofits, eight for health organizations, and six each for environment/sustainability projects and in government work.
To reach their career goals, 21 of the journalists are considering or already have entered college.
“I just started a Masters of Divinity program that takes three years,” wrote one respondent. “I intend to become a chaplain and will need further professional training and certification beyond the three year divinity school training.”
While most expect newspapers to die, 42 percent of the respondents said they believe independent, meaningful journalism will survive in some form. Another 24 percent took a neutral view. The journalists offered a variety of predictions of how this new world may emerge, from non-profits underwriting journalism to for-profit businesses built around online subscriptions.
Below are some individual predictions for the future of journalism:
“It will be less professional, younger, more poorly paid, more controlled by commercial interests.”
“Mainstream journalism, sadly, will shift into the hands of even fewer than now. New journalism will have many branches, funded by niches – foundations, academia, governmental institutions, political advocacy groups, varied interest groups, community news groups, etc. – and eventually co-ops of these niches may form to provide a way to share information and revenue streams.”
“As long as there is news to cover, there will be a need for journalists to report on it and explain its significance. Where that work is published will continue to evolve, though I expect the great majority of future news sources will be electronic: online and mobile, including e-readers and broadband. Only media groups that adopt and adapt early will survive.”
“If we can figure out how to monetize news, we might also see a sort of journalism iTunes, where audiences can buy stories/videos/whatever from various sources, piece by piece, in one place, rather than pay one fee for one news source.”
“Everything will be online and available via phone. I predict every story will have bullets and none will be longer than 6 paragraphs. I pray that independent, meaningful journalism will survive, but I’m afraid I’m becoming a pessimist. The stories that used to pop up on my email account were once things such as the latest international developments or scientific advances. Now it’s “Ten Ways to Tell If He’s Cheating on You” and “The Best Way to Eat Chicken Wings.” (True examples.) Newspapers used to guarantee that you’d see what you needed to know (arms treaty) along with what you wanted to know (chicken wings.) Now the public can get ONLY what it wants to know. Fun, but dangerous.”
“Methinks the chaos will continue and that there will be a long period of abundant but significantly degraded information for public discourse. The wealthy and able, of course, will get inside info or info applicable so the elite get more so while the bulk of society will be soma-tized with partisan, worthless and even evil and vile entertainments.”
“Call me an optimist, but I’d like to think that there is a place for a print product – or a web/e-reader product that is laid out like a print product – in addition to a very strong web presence. (I like the sense of discovery I get from leafing through the paper, where I can be enticed by something I might just skip over – or not even know it exists – when looking at a website.)”
“I believe journalism will evolve into a handful of ‘branded’ multi-platform news services that all include a website, email newsletters, printable newspaper-like product, audio and video. ... Longer-form journalism might survive by contracting with one of the branded news services for subscription and distribution services.
“I think philanthropists will step in and run newspapers on a nonprofit or less-profit model.”
“I think journalism and newspapers will continue, in some form, but they won’t be as important, relevant or necessary as they once were, and they won’t be able to provide the level of service they once did.”
“Major national papers like the WSJ, NYT and USA Today will stay strong. Hyper local papers will continue to do fine. Metropolitan and mid-sized papers will deteriorate and disappear, replaced by websites, non-profits, citizen journalism, or nothing at all.”
“I see more of what’s happening now: real journalists setting up independent internet ventures regionally and nationally, funded by nonprofits. Call me Pollyanna, but I also see the pendulum swinging back to print journalism some years down the road. It’ll be rediscovered, re-energized, the big new thing. That’s what I like to think, anyway.”
– Brett Levy
For more information, contact the author at Brett.Levy@thejournalismshop.com. Journalism Shop member Scott Martelle edited this report.
This concludes our series of survey stories.
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